Market Commentary
The Largest Company in America Grew Revenue 85%. The Bond Market Didn't Care. Nvidia just posted $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue — up 85% year-over-year — with 75% gross margins and $58 billion in net income. The stock barely moved. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury breached 4.6%, the 30-year
Market Commentary
The S&P 500 has rallied 9% and the NASDAQ 15% from their late-March lows. Semiconductors now represent 18% of the S&P 500, up from 14% at the start of the year. Nvidia alone is larger than the entire healthcare sector. The market is pricing in a
Market Commentary
Earnings Season Rewrites the Playbook — But the Models Are Watching What's Underneath The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs. The post-March rally has been relentless — from down 4% for the year at the end of March to up 5% as of this week. The NASDAQ swung
Market Commentary
StoicFunds Signal Check * Macro Regime: In transition. The S&P continues to climb above 7,000, posting new all-time highs. But oil is ticking higher again with Hormuz still functionally closed. The regime hasn't officially flipped — DBO and GLD momentum still elevated relative to SPY and TLT
Market Commentary
StoicFunds Signal Check * Macro Regime: Shifting. S&P crossed 7,000 for the first time — up 4.5% for the week. Oil plunged 11.45% on Friday after Iran declared Hormuz "completely open." If oil holds lower and equities hold above prior highs, the regime could flip
Market Commentary
Iran — Ceasefire Announced, Strait Still Closed * Trump gave Tuesday-night deadline to Iran. At the last minute, announced a two-week ceasefire. Iran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz * Oil collapsed 15% on the news. S&P closed +2.5% * But VP Vance called it a "fragile truce"
Market Commentary
Iran War — Escalation Ladder Accelerating. Labor Market — Headline Strength, Structural Weakness. Gold Anomaly — Hedge Fund Herd Mentality. Private Credit — Software Exposure Understated. SpaceX IPO — Space as Industrial Frontier
Market Commentary
StoicFunds Signal Check * Macro Regime: 🔴 Inflationary Bust (DBO > SPY, GLD > TLT) * Market Stress: 🔴 Ultra-Safe — 4 of 4 signals elevated (SPY: −0.46, VWO: −0.69, VEA: −0.44, BND: −0.15) * Momentum: 11 of 13 assets in BEAR. Only BULL: DBC (+3.44), XLE (+3.59) * The models