Market Commentary
The market's relationship with AI capital spending broke this week. Two of the largest companies on Earth — Alphabet and Tesla — reported the same quarter: strong revenue growth, surging capital expenditures, and negative free cash flow. Both got punished. Alphabet fell 7% on Thursday despite 24% revenue growth and
Market Commentary
The equity rally keeps grinding higher, and it keeps getting narrower. Seven of thirteen tracked assets are in bullish momentum this week, down from nine just a month ago. The macro regime remains Inflationary Bust. Stress is Normal. And somehow, large-cap tech is carrying the entire market on its
Market Commentary
The Largest Company in America Grew Revenue 85%. The Bond Market Didn't Care. Nvidia just posted $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue — up 85% year-over-year — with 75% gross margins and $58 billion in net income. The stock barely moved. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury breached 4.
Market Commentary
The S&P 500 has rallied 9% and the NASDAQ 15% from their late-March lows. Semiconductors now represent 18% of the S&P 500, up from 14% at the start of the year. Nvidia alone is larger than the entire healthcare sector. The market is pricing in
Market Commentary
Earnings Season Rewrites the Playbook — But the Models Are Watching What's Underneath The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs. The post-March rally has been relentless — from down 4% for the year at the end of March to up 5% as of this week. The
Market Commentary
StoicFunds Signal Check * Macro Regime: In transition. The S&P continues to climb above 7,000, posting new all-time highs. But oil is ticking higher again with Hormuz still functionally closed. The regime hasn't officially flipped — DBO and GLD momentum still elevated relative to SPY and
Market Commentary
StoicFunds Signal Check * Macro Regime: Shifting. S&P crossed 7,000 for the first time — up 4.5% for the week. Oil plunged 11.45% on Friday after Iran declared Hormuz "completely open." If oil holds lower and equities hold above prior highs, the regime could flip
Market Commentary
Iran — Ceasefire Announced, Strait Still Closed * Trump gave Tuesday-night deadline to Iran. At the last minute, announced a two-week ceasefire. Iran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz * Oil collapsed 15% on the news. S&P closed +2.5% * But VP Vance called it a "fragile
Market Commentary
Iran War — Escalation Ladder Accelerating. Labor Market — Headline Strength, Structural Weakness. Gold Anomaly — Hedge Fund Herd Mentality. Private Credit — Software Exposure Understated. SpaceX IPO — Space as Industrial Frontier
Market Commentary
StoicFunds Signal Check * Macro Regime: 🔴 Inflationary Bust (DBO > SPY, GLD > TLT) * Market Stress: 🔴 Ultra-Safe — 4 of 4 signals elevated (SPY: −0.46, VWO: −0.69, VEA: −0.44, BND: −0.15) * Momentum: 11 of 13 assets in BEAR. Only BULL: DBC (+3.44), XLE (+3.59) * The