Macro Regime
THE FRAMEWORK
Macro Regime Detection
Markets move in regimes. We measure two forces — inflation and growth — to identify which of four economic quadrants we're in, then position accordingly.
CURRENT REGIME · May 24, 2026
🟡
Inflationary Boom
SPY · QQQ · IWM · VEA · EEM · GLD · XLE
🟢
Deflationary Boom
SPY · QQQ · IWM · VEA · EEM · TLT · IEF · LQD · HYG
🔴
Inflationary Bust
GLD · DBC · TIP · BIL
🔵
Deflationary Bust
TLT · IEF · BIL · SHY · GLD
HOW WE DETECT THE REGIME
Two signals, four quadrants
Inflation Signal
GLD momentum vs TLT momentum (6-month + 12-month average)
INFLATIONARY
GLD > TLT
Growth Signal
SPY momentum vs DBO momentum (6-month + 12-month average)
BUST
DBO > SPY
MARKET STRESS
Early warning filter
Four stress indicators (SPY, VWO, VEA, BND) scored with momentum. If too many go negative, strategy shifts defensive regardless of regime.
🟢
Normal
1 of 4 stress signals elevated
SPY
+1.5699
🟢 POSITIVE
VWO
+0.7844
🟢 POSITIVE
VEA
+1.3002
🟢 POSITIVE
BND
-0.0847
🔴 NEGATIVE
| BAD CANARIES | OVERRIDE | ACTION |
|---|---|---|
| 0–1 | None | Use regime pool normally |
| 2 | Caution | Force bust regime pool |
| 3–4 | Ultra-Safe | Move to BIL / IEF / SHY only |