Macro Regime
THE FRAMEWORK
Macro Regime Detection
Markets move in regimes. We measure two forces — inflation and growth — to identify which of four economic quadrants we're in, then position accordingly.
CURRENT REGIME · March 23, 2026
🟡
Inflationary Boom
SPY · QQQ · IWM · VEA · EEM · GLD · XLE
🟢
Deflationary Boom
SPY · QQQ · IWM · VEA · EEM · TLT · IEF · LQD · HYG
🔴
Inflationary Bust
GLD · DBC · TIP · BIL
🔵
Deflationary Bust
TLT · IEF · BIL · SHY · GLD
HOW WE DETECT THE REGIME
Two signals, four quadrants
Inflation Signal
GLD momentum vs TLT momentum (6-month + 12-month average)
INFLATIONARY
GLD > TLT
Growth Signal
SPY momentum vs DBO momentum (6-month + 12-month average)
BUST
DBO > SPY
MARKET STRESS
Early warning filter
Four stress indicators (SPY, VWO, VEA, BND) scored with momentum. If too many go negative, strategy shifts defensive regardless of regime.
🔴
Ultra-Safe
4 of 4 stress signals elevated
SPY
-0.4647
🔴 NEGATIVE
VWO
-0.6919
🔴 NEGATIVE
VEA
-0.4404
🔴 NEGATIVE
BND
-0.1496
🔴 NEGATIVE
| BAD CANARIES | OVERRIDE | ACTION |
|---|---|---|
| 0–1 | None | Use regime pool normally |
| 2 | Caution | Force bust regime pool |
| 3–4 | Ultra-Safe | Move to BIL / IEF / SHY only |